Boise’s slow start on offense is problematic.
San Diego State has lost only to formidable competition. They lost to Fresno in overtime and have won two games in overtime. They are tough and will be tough to beat before their hometown crowd.
It will take Boise State’s best performance to date to beat San Diego.
Grant Hedrick will have to perform far above what we have seen in the past. He will have to be explosive. He can’t throw screen passes into the chest of opposing players. He will have to establish himself early as a dangerous and explosive runner. His passing must be uncanny.
Beyond that Boise receivers can not drop anything – period. In the last two games they have had their share of drops, especially the balls that are right on target. In addition they have to pull in passes that are a little off target.
The O-line must open holes for Jay Ajayi and company. Ajayi sheds secondary runners like a mad man running from a burning house wearing flaming clothes.
The D must play fast, strong, and aggressive.
The problem is that they are young and play erratic. One game they look great and the next game not so great.
All the comparative numbers can be crunched and it looks like Boise should walk away with a close win. The facts are that at present BSU is not quite ready for a big win. If everyone was healthy Boise State could easily defeat San Diego, but they are not.
I was very close to calling an Aztec upset, but upon reflection the Broncos will be out to punish SDSU for the upset loss last year on the blue turf in front of the Boise fans. My hope is that SDSU will not be able to exploit the Broncos’ youth, exuberance, and inexperience.
I’m going to play the head and heart hand again.
My head says 40-27 BSU.
My heart says 48-17 BSU.
Here’s my previous predictions:
1. Boise over UW 35-17 (Actual, 6-38 UW, hope springs eternal.)
2. Boise over UT Martin 49-0 (Actual 63-14, got the spread.)
3. Boise over Air Force 45-17 (Actual, 42-20, missed by a field goal on both ends.)
4. Boise over Fresno 45-30 (Actual 41-40 Fresno win, Frankly if the game were held any place, but Fresno…)
5. Boise over Southern Miss 49-10 (Actual 60-7, Petersen purposely left the first team in too long to foil me and Demarcus Lawrence was off-sides on one of his blocked field goals [not really, I’m just a sore loser})
6. Boise over Utah State 35-7 (Actual, 34-23, My original prediction was 52-7. I think if BSU would have played the second half without their foot on the brake that would have been more likely. Let’s be honest the game was not really that close.)
7. Boise over Nevada 52-10 (Actual, 34-17. If not for the Southwick injury Boise would have scored 50+ and Nevada would not have scored 17.)
8. Boise over BYU 38-21 (Actual, 37-20 BYU. BYU was simply too big and too strong. Boise turned the ball over 4 times.)
9. Heart: 45-10 BSU, Head: 35-24 BSU (Actual, 42-30. My head was close on the spread. BSU D had a real lapse and the Broncos put the brakes on in the second half.)
10. Head: 40-23 BSU, Heart: 55-14 BSU (Actual 48-7 BSU. My heart was closest. In fact, Wyoming was lucky to score.)